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Simple Answers

 


People like to have simple answers. That is why we categorize things. It makes it easier to fit into our minds. We give magnitude numbers to things like earthquakes hurricanes, and tornados.  It is easy to do. Measuring wind speed or the magnitude of vibrations is easy. The problem is that how destructive an earthquake or a tornado is may not necessarily increase with the numerical index. A magnitude 6 earthquake might be 100 times more destructive than a magnitude 7. The magnitude 7 might be deeper underground, or be of shorter duration. The magnitude 6 might be under a populated area with lax building codes. There are a lot of factors that determine how destructive something is, not the least of which is the amount of human suffering. Quantifying the human suffering of an event is a job more suited to an artist that a bean counter.

But people want simple answers. Why did the Titanic sink? The captain must have been an idiot. There is a simple answer for you. It is all the answer as some people want. They don’t want to be bothered with the nuance. But the captain was being pressured by the shipping line to beat the record for an Atlantic crossing. The ship was considered unsinkable. Icebergs that late in the season were considered rare. The wireless operator received a transmission that there was heavy sea ice in the area, but he failed to report it to the captain. The builders trying to save money, used inferior steel in the rivets, weakening the hull. The second officer, who did not make the voyage, forgot to return the keys to the binocular locker, so the lookouts had no binoculars. Captain Smith probably deserves some of the blame, but the full story is more complex.

Politicians know that people want simple answers and they do their best to give people simple answers because if they try to explain the full story, it weakens their argument. It loses punch. Consider two candidates who are talking to voters about unemployment. The first candidate says that the reason we have high unemployment is because of A, B, C, and D, and then starts to explain economic theory. The second candidate says the reason we have high unemployment is because of X. Just X. People are going to vote for the second candidate because he gave them an answer they can understand. Now the first candidate sees this and learns, so he starts dumbing down his argument to couch it in simple terms. “Populist” politicians love to do this; find a simple answer no matter how complex the problem. Often this involves a scape goat. In Hitler’s Germany, it was the Jews who were blamed for all the problems. Truth doesn’t matter. A simple answer is all that matters. It’s so much easier to say, “it’s all their fault,” than it is to actually fix problems. In many countries today racial minorities find themselves being blamed as the root cause for . . . whatever the problem of the day is. Again, truth doesn’t matter. A simple answer is all that matters.

Science likes to get the full story. If the answer isn’t simple, so be it. The truth is what is important. Thus, there is a sort of a love/hate relationship between the general public and science. The public loves it when science discloses wonders, but hate it when science tells them something they don’t want to hear, and the reasons for that ‘something’ are complex and may require a science degree to fully understand. Some politicians attack science when it suits their needs because they know the scientists will be hopeless in the court of public opinion.

I am sorry, but the answers to some questions are not black or white like we might want them to be. Answers to big questions require complex deliberation and patience.


Star Liner

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